The growing debate on healthcare is arguable centralized around the "public option." However, recent reports have said that the public option may be dropped from the reform plan if that would help the bill pass. According to the New York Times, Kathleen Sebelius, the health and human services secretary said that the public option "...is not necessary for reform." Yet, some say that dropping the public option will decrease the democratic support for the reform bill. In a recent poll done by the Huffignton Post, 77% of those polled support the public option "choice." However, as the Huffington Post reports, when NBC pollsters dropped the word "choice" and just said 'public option,' only 43% were in favor of having the government administer a public healthcare plan.
This ties in with not only the current poll that I have designed, but also with what we have recently discussed in class about poll design--word choice is crucial. The absense of the word "choice" dropped the percentage of those in favor of the public option. Word terminology is crucial in poll design.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Does interviewer 'traits' have an impact on polls?
The most clear cut answer to this question is yes. As talked about in class today, race, gender, age and socioeconomic status of an interviewer can have an impact on poll responses. In addition, body language and political affiliation (if known) can also have an impact. For example, although not a necessarily a 'trait' the way that CNN and Fox news word their results for their polls are quite different. CNN headlines a poll saying "Generational Split Over Healthcare Reform," whereas, Fox news disreagards the age difference and headlines a poll saying, "Americans Prefer the Current System to Obama's Healthcare System." Both media outlets who are polling the public are dictating the poll to slide it in a persuasive direction that would appeal or is likely to agree with a majority of its viewers.
However, in addittion, these polls could be skewed by the way that they were conducted. The Fox news poll was conducted from a population of registered voters via telephone. The CNN poll was also conducted by telephone. Therefore, is this poll representative? As discussed in class, this may be a disproportionate population representation because some individuals are not registered voters (Fox news poll) and some may not have telephones (both polls). Although one can appreciate the efficiency of polling via telephone. It may be quite easy to argue that these polls hardly represent and equal distribution of the population.
However, in addittion, these polls could be skewed by the way that they were conducted. The Fox news poll was conducted from a population of registered voters via telephone. The CNN poll was also conducted by telephone. Therefore, is this poll representative? As discussed in class, this may be a disproportionate population representation because some individuals are not registered voters (Fox news poll) and some may not have telephones (both polls). Although one can appreciate the efficiency of polling via telephone. It may be quite easy to argue that these polls hardly represent and equal distribution of the population.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Abortion included in Healthcare?
Although President Obama has granted some leeway in the healthcare plan concerning the public option. Many Republicans and Democrats are seemingly now more concerned with whether or not public money will go to funding abortion under the new plan. According to Ramussen reports, 48% of those polled want public funded abortion banned from the bill, 13% believe that such plans should be required to cover abortion procedures and 32% are neutral.
Of those who currently support the passing of the legislation, 22% say that they want public funded abortions banned from the bill, 22% want a mandate requiring such coverage, 47% are neutral and 9% have no opinion.
This shows many of the factors that may impact those in regards to their support for heatlcare. This poll shows that even though some may currently support the plan, if abortion is or is not included in the plan than they may desert their initial support for the bill. In addittion, those who may have no opinion concerning heatlthcare may be strongly against abortion, and may now have an opinion on the healthcare issue.
The complicated nature of the healthcare plan makes it close to impossible to get a consistent opinion base of for or against national coverage because of so many prevailing circumstances and details that are present on each side that may not settle well for its supporters. Abortion is a prime example of this and a reminder that we should take each public opinion poll on legilsation with a grain of salt.
Of those who currently support the passing of the legislation, 22% say that they want public funded abortions banned from the bill, 22% want a mandate requiring such coverage, 47% are neutral and 9% have no opinion.
This shows many of the factors that may impact those in regards to their support for heatlcare. This poll shows that even though some may currently support the plan, if abortion is or is not included in the plan than they may desert their initial support for the bill. In addittion, those who may have no opinion concerning heatlthcare may be strongly against abortion, and may now have an opinion on the healthcare issue.
The complicated nature of the healthcare plan makes it close to impossible to get a consistent opinion base of for or against national coverage because of so many prevailing circumstances and details that are present on each side that may not settle well for its supporters. Abortion is a prime example of this and a reminder that we should take each public opinion poll on legilsation with a grain of salt.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Bias in Polling
After class today I tried to find some articles that may discuss the bias in healthcare polling. Much to my surprise, I found just that. David M. Moore, who is the author of "The Opinion Makers," a recent book that just came out, wrote an article discussing Gallup's poll bias in healthcare. He accuses the Gallup organization of having a more conservative outlook on the healthcare issue and also accusses them of attempting to delay the legislation process by giving the public the more conservative outlook on the polls. Moore stresses that after working for Gallup for 13 years, the organization does attempt to not be biased in their polls, however he says that it is impossible due to personal preference. In the most recent healthcare poll, "Americans on healthcare reform: Top 10 Takeaways," he says the bias is the most prevalent.
The terminology used in this article is what bothers Moore. He states that in one example, the Gallup poll states that, ""Most Americans do not believe that the U.S. healthcare system is in a state of crisis." However, Moore specifies that other data shows that there is no "state of crisis" and Congress does not believe the healthcare system is in a 'state of crisis.' In addittion, there is no information from Gallup to conclude that the healthcare system is in crisis. Once again, the terminology that is used may promote certain reponses from those being polled although they are inaccurrate assumptions.
Another example from this Gallup poll says that,["The economy outweighs healthcare as the most pressing problem facing the country and in Americans' personal lives." To support this contention, Gallup notes that "almost 7 out of 10 Americans say economic-related issues are the nation's top problem; 16% say healthcare is the top problem."]
Moore claims that the question is, "specious." He says that it implies that only one problem should be dealth with at once, when there is no evidence to disregard the idea that the President and Congress from addressing both problems at once.
Nevertheless this article explores the problematic questioning and bias construction that may be present within a poll and upon the creation of one. David Moore points out some valid misconceptions from one of the most notable polling organizations. This validates the scrunity that everyone must have when observing poll data because no organization can obtain the perfection of being able to avoid a mistake.
http://www.beaconbroadside.com/broadside/2009/08/david-w-moore-gallups-anti-health-care-bias.html
The terminology used in this article is what bothers Moore. He states that in one example, the Gallup poll states that, ""Most Americans do not believe that the U.S. healthcare system is in a state of crisis." However, Moore specifies that other data shows that there is no "state of crisis" and Congress does not believe the healthcare system is in a 'state of crisis.' In addittion, there is no information from Gallup to conclude that the healthcare system is in crisis. Once again, the terminology that is used may promote certain reponses from those being polled although they are inaccurrate assumptions.
Another example from this Gallup poll says that,["The economy outweighs healthcare as the most pressing problem facing the country and in Americans' personal lives." To support this contention, Gallup notes that "almost 7 out of 10 Americans say economic-related issues are the nation's top problem; 16% say healthcare is the top problem."]
Moore claims that the question is, "specious." He says that it implies that only one problem should be dealth with at once, when there is no evidence to disregard the idea that the President and Congress from addressing both problems at once.
Nevertheless this article explores the problematic questioning and bias construction that may be present within a poll and upon the creation of one. David Moore points out some valid misconceptions from one of the most notable polling organizations. This validates the scrunity that everyone must have when observing poll data because no organization can obtain the perfection of being able to avoid a mistake.
http://www.beaconbroadside.com/broadside/2009/08/david-w-moore-gallups-anti-health-care-bias.html
Thursday, September 10, 2009
"Nonattitudes" in healthcare polls
As discussed in class today, "Nonattitudes" in polling can present a problem when a pollster is trying to get legit polling data from a population. I do not think this problem will ever cease to exist, especially in regards to healthcare. It is a much to detailed topic topic to not have someone present within your sample that has a 'pseudo-opinion,' especially if that question is burried between other questions that they have opinions on. That one question may throw off the entire. poll. Looking back over my past blogs. I have not found one poll that does not have a "no opinion," "doesnt care," or a "somewhat" option attached to the data. I believe it is practically impossible to conduct a poll where every single person involved in that sample has an actual exact opinion on the topic that is being discussed.
After going over several gallup polls on health care that are posted at the gallup website. Almost all of them have a 'no opinion' section or some section of equal comparison to give pollers options when responding. This is what makes some polls more valid than others; the ability to cater to those in the population that may not have opinions on their poll. This makes some websites polls more valid than others who make individuals choose a side, when they may not know what side stands for what.
After going over several gallup polls on health care that are posted at the gallup website. Almost all of them have a 'no opinion' section or some section of equal comparison to give pollers options when responding. This is what makes some polls more valid than others; the ability to cater to those in the population that may not have opinions on their poll. This makes some websites polls more valid than others who make individuals choose a side, when they may not know what side stands for what.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Healthcare divide is still close
In a recent gallup poll that was conducted, statistics still show that Americans are still divided on the healthcare issue. 35% of those polled said they would vote for it, 36% of those polled said they would vote against it and 29% had no opinion. In addittion 64% of those polled said that healthcare would be a major deciding factor in regards to their representatives position on the issue when it comes time for a new election. This poll only reaffirms that this issue is still a problem in public opinion. However, as talked about in class today, the sampling may have effected the poll results. The poll was conducted from a nation wide sample of 1,026 adults, 18 and older via telephone interviews.
As talked about in class today, it is questionable whether or not this sample is representative of the nations population. Despite the 95% confidence and the +-4 sampling error, the sample seems to be naive to those who may not have telephones. Especially today, many Americans have cell phones, especially my generation. In addittion, what about those who are to poor to afford telephones? How can those who may be below the poverty level and without phones be included in this population. Those individuals may play a crucial part in this polls results because those who may not be able to afford phones, may also not be able to afford healthcare and therefore may increase the results of those who would vote for the reform.
www.gallup.com/poll/122822/Americans-Sharply-Divided-Healthcare-Reform.aspx
As talked about in class today, it is questionable whether or not this sample is representative of the nations population. Despite the 95% confidence and the +-4 sampling error, the sample seems to be naive to those who may not have telephones. Especially today, many Americans have cell phones, especially my generation. In addittion, what about those who are to poor to afford telephones? How can those who may be below the poverty level and without phones be included in this population. Those individuals may play a crucial part in this polls results because those who may not be able to afford phones, may also not be able to afford healthcare and therefore may increase the results of those who would vote for the reform.
www.gallup.com/poll/122822/Americans-Sharply-Divided-Healthcare-Reform.aspx
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Does Congress have a good grasp on healthcare issues?
Gallup recently conducted a poll that asked Americans if they thought that Congress had a good grasp on the healthcare reform issues. 2 in 3 of those polled doubted Congresses grasp on healthcare. In addittion, half 48% said they thought they had a good grasp on healthcare issues, where as only 27% say that Congress had a good grasp on the issues. This poll shows peoples lack of faith in Congress. Even though Congress has always had a significantly low approval rating, this poll shows that something should be done in order to show the U.S. that they are knowledgeable or concerned about the healthcare issues that are important to the public. Another recent poll from Gallup says that only 17% of Americans have confidence in Congress. This is significant because the members of Congress are the people who are chosen to represent the public.
This poll questions the notion that most people may be more disgruntled with President Obama on the healthcare dilemma because it is seemingly apparent that more people are moving that frustration in some regard to Congress members.
www.gallup.com/poll/121916/Two-Three-Doubt-Congress-Grasp-Healthcare-Issues.aspx
This poll questions the notion that most people may be more disgruntled with President Obama on the healthcare dilemma because it is seemingly apparent that more people are moving that frustration in some regard to Congress members.
www.gallup.com/poll/121916/Two-Three-Doubt-Congress-Grasp-Healthcare-Issues.aspx
Healthcare and tax dollars
In correlation with class today, I decided to go online and find a pseudo poll on health care. Ironically, I did go to fox news and I found similar results to what the Jon Stewart clip was referring to (the one we watched in class). The title of the blog was "Should the White House Use Tax Dollars to Lobby for Healthcare Reform?" 98% (64,852) of those polled said no, 2% (1,116) said yes and <1% (161) said they were not sure.
Although the poll had a significant amount of people respond, there is no way to tell if the poll was representative to the population even though the site stated that it was not a scientific poll. Different people prefer different media outlets, mainly because of common opinions and views. Therefore, the findings of this poll may represent the common views of this media outlet, however, may not be represent the viewers of other outlets who did not get a chance to participate in the poll.
Here is a link to the poll.
www.foxnews.com/opinion/
Although the poll had a significant amount of people respond, there is no way to tell if the poll was representative to the population even though the site stated that it was not a scientific poll. Different people prefer different media outlets, mainly because of common opinions and views. Therefore, the findings of this poll may represent the common views of this media outlet, however, may not be represent the viewers of other outlets who did not get a chance to participate in the poll.
Here is a link to the poll.
www.foxnews.com/opinion/
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